This post at Axios gives us the benefit of Barak Ravid’s reporting on the state of the US-Iran negotiations. His sources suggest that the core hold up was the Iranian nuclear program, with the US insisting on a 20 year moratorium on uranium production and the Iranians countering with something in the single digits. Note that this isn’t that different from what President Obama got with the JCPOA – a longterm but by no means permanent cessation. There’s also no mention in the Ravid piece about the Strait of Hormuz or the sanctions regime. Perhaps I’m wrong in what I noted here and the demand for sanctions relief is merely a bluff. But other reports say that Hormuz was in fact a major stumbling block, as one would expect. While I don’t question Ravid’s reporting as such, this article in the Times, I believe, captures the dynamic more precisely. Iran and the US are now moving into a battle of economic privation, testing which player can endure more economic pain.
