Elections are hard to predict. But even with that, some of the notional “surprises” we’re seeing tonight are less surprises than a measure of GOP dominance over current press narratives. People were looking for an upset in New Jersey. Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin speculated that New Jersey might be moving toward becoming the next swing state. In fact, Rep. Mikie Sherrill currently appears on track to crush Republican Jack Ciattarelli. A similar failure of conventional wisdom appears to be unfolding in the Virginia Attorney General’s race. A lot of DC insiders had convinced themselves that a controversy over some intemperate emails (not nothing but fairly close to it) had doomed his campaign. As recently as a couple days ago betting markets (which are proxies for conventional wisdom) gave his opponent Jason Miyares 3 to 1 odds of victory. Jones now appears on his way to a clear though not resounding victory with a 3 to 4 percentage point margin.
