Tuesday morning gave us the latest set of data indicating that President Donald Trump’s tariffs regime is not, in fact, making manufacturing great again. The November jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggested that the tariffs are not protecting blue collar jobs, and may well be hiking prices this holiday season. And while these facts may not come as a surprise to experts or mindful observers, the BLS employment situation report reveals information that flies in the face of what Trump and his economic Cabinet members have been feeding the public.
Tuesday’s jobs report appears to show an economy in continued stagnation, if not decline, while sectors particularly sensitive to Trump’s tariffs appear to be strained, as evidenced by job cuts.
It’s yet another example — similar to Trump’s assertion that Americans’ “affordability” concerns are the product of “a hoax” — of the way in which the economic reality faced by people on the ground is in considerable tension with the narrative spun by the White House.
The economy added 64,000 jobs in November, a tick above the about 50,000 analysts were expecting from the first almost on-time jobs report since the six-week government shutdown halted BLS operations. The 4.6% unemployment rate, however, was higher than expected, and is higher than the rate this time last year.
In fact, Americans haven’t seen a 4.6% unemployment rate since September 2021, when employment was normalizing after the historic economic shock caused by the pandemic. Prior to April 2020, the U.S. hasn’t had a 4.6% unemployment rate since February 2017, according to historic BLS data. The unemployment rate has been increasing since June (though data for October does not exist because of the shutdown), the longest stretch of rising unemployment since 2009 during the global financial crisis. During Trump’s first term, the unemployment rate mostly continued to fall, following the downward trend established during former President Barack Obama’s two terms, according to historic BLS data.
In addition to the ominous upward joblessness trend, the sectors where that job loss is concentrated are those that the president and his men have hailed as Trump’s priority.
The number of blue collar jobs across industries decreased between October and November, according to the jobs report. Mining and logging occupations shed 4,000 jobs month over month, and are down even more compared to this time last year. Manufacturing is down 5,000 jobs, and down about 80,000 roles year over year, with losses in food, textile, apparel, paper and chemical mills among them.
In October, a White House press release argued that “America’s manufacturing sector is surging forward with unprecedented momentum,” before announcing future commitments secured from companies like Whirlpool and Stellantis auto manufacturers. The momentum touted by the White House has yet to be felt on the ground, based on Tuesday’s report.
Trade and transportation were two additional sectors hit particularly hard. General merchandise retailers — the Walmarts, Costcos and Targets — shed about 7,000 jobs, but were up slightly compared to last November. And transportation took a major hit this holiday season, with couriers and messengers seeing double-digit decline.
In a POLITICO Q&A published in early December, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer touted Trump’s trade policies as income drivers for blue collar workers.
“But where trade comes into it is when you have a trade system in place that protects U.S. jobs, you get higher incomes,” Greer said. “So the blue collar wages are up this year. That’s what matters.”
Federal data published last week puts an asterisk on this claim, too. Total compensation for manufacturing workers was up 0.8% for the three months ending in September 2025. But that industry saw the exact same percentage increase during the same period in 2024 and 2023. Wage growth for transportation and material moving was down this year compared to the previous two, while compensation increase for construction workers was up slightly, just 0.1% year over year.
Construction jobs, however, are increasing. The industry added 28,000 jobs month over month, and has a higher number of jobs compared to this time last year. Analysts understand this gain to be generally associated with data center construction and other AI-related building projects. Experts have also mulled the risks that could come with the U.S. economy and building industry being propped up so significantly by just one driver.
Corporate investment in AI-related growth, like data center construction, boosted U.S. GDP by more than 1% in the second quarter of 2025, according to an analysis by the Wall Street Journal. The industry has been such a boon to the economy that chief global strategist at BCA Research Peter Berezin told the Journal it could be single-handedly keeping the U.S. from an economic crash.
“It’s certainly plausible that the economy would already be in a recession” without investments in AI, Berezin told the Journal.
Even as analysis poured in, Trump officials continued to spin, painting a familiar, disconnected view of the economy.
“November’s jobs report shows our economy continues to gain momentum despite the economic mess President Trump inherited from the Biden administration and the reckless Democrat shutdown,” said U.S. Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer in a released statement.
Tuesday’s numbers also aren’t the end of the story. BLS revised down its employment estimates for August and September by a combined 33,000, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at a press conference last week said the Fed believes BLS numbers may be overstating hiring by about 20,000 jobs per month.
